WTO and Art. 16
Ulster Unionists are always looking for someone to lead them over the cliff, with a kind of “that will teach them” mentality. The latest urge is to tear up the NIP, not just invoke Article 16 but tear up the whole thing.
The real danger for the country including NI is that they might succeed, because although the ultras believe this will take the UK to their beloved and fantastical “WTO terms Brexit”,it would in fact be far worse.
WTO terms would add another 25% of economic damage to that we are already seeing, minimum. In fact I think it would be far worse but what would be far far more damaging is to tear up the Northern Ireland Protocol as that would be the start of a real trade war with the EU. A war the UK would lose on day one.
But that is not impossible, because the real danger is that the UK has a PM who is only interested in his own survival. If he thinks a return to the Troubles and vast economic damage to whole sectors of the economy will please the ERG nd keep him in power; he might just do it.
Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.