What ifs?

I am always rather sceptical about the “What if?” genre of history, purely on the grounds that it didn’t happen so what is the point of wondering about it. Although it can sometimes be useful in analysing what did happen by better illustrating the powers at play.

So would the South’s reconstruction been better handled if Lincoln had survived?

And when it comes to Brexit it can be very useful indeed, sometimes.

For a start we can tell with a greta deal of accuracy how much more badly the British economy has performed than it would have had we stayed in the EU.

We can see the trade flows being disrupted, the investment falling, the productivity slowing, and we can work out quite easily how much better off we would all be but for the self inflicted wound.

But after that it is much harder. Would a narrow defeat for Leave have ended the matter, at the time UKIP said no, they would keep demanding referendums until they won. So how would that have effected our relationship with the EU?

Would we have remained the pain in the arse, exception demanding, no mates sitting in the corner and whinging about everything and anything? Would we have resisted moves to greater defence coordination in Europe, begged to stay close to the USA, and generally have been a spanner in the works?

Even taking that into account the EU would far rather we had stayed, but we didn’t. So now it would far rather we negotiated sensibly, and joined things which are available and affordable and in our own interest.

But still we don’t, which is madness. With Trump threatening NATO and Europe for not supporting his mad policies, we need some realism.

Countries have no permanent friends, only permanent interests.

In a Trumpian world our permanent interests now rest in Europe. We can not rejoin as things stand, but we are not bound by the decision to leave to actually continue the self harm either.

Maybe Rachel Reeves will address this in her Mais lecture tonight. It would really help if she did.

There is an alternative history where we left the EU but acted with common sense and it is still just about available. Now is the time to grab it with both hands.

Jonty’s Jotting

From Jonty Bloom Media Ltd

Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.