The ONS has been pouring cold water on the latest trade figures for the UK in January, for at least a week. Covid, stock piling, border disruption and the reliability of the services sector data are all reasons why the figures have to be taken with lots and lots of salt. The collapse of car sales is on its own a major factor, as the UK exports a lot of cars to the EU.
But the headline figures show UK exports to the EU fell 40.7% and imports by 29%. The total figures for the UK’s trade with the world show exports down 19% and imports down 21.6%. But it is not even possible to say that the difference between the world figures and the EU figures show the effect of Brexit on trade with the continent and the ONS says EU trade seemed to be getting better towards the end of January.
The best one can say is that other data, from road hauliers and other countries supports the idea that Brexit has hit trade. But to give you an idea of how complicated this is going to be to sort out; trade with the Far East seems to have been helped by the UK/Singapore trade deal but exports of fresh fish and animals to the EU collapsed by 63%.
Good data matters, it informs good policy making. These figures are unfortunately, and it is no fault of the ONS, which has upped its game during covid; of no use at all.
https://jonty.substack.com/
In a time where on social media response to Piers Morgan leaving GMB on ITV is instantaneous it must be so frustrating to economics editors that they cannot move as quickly as the Royal & TV correspondents.
Trade figures have to be "taken with a large dose of salt" and what use are they in reality? Well the good thing about salt is it adds flavour where without it the food may be a bit bland and it is a preservative. With the variables highlighted by the ONS we cannot yet clearly see how much of that original trade is lost. Some of it may be lost, some may be slowed and some may be unaffected. Even new trade could be coming on stream for the first time!
I love the way you present your preferred statistics to suit. Exports fell by 40%, imports by 29% so in total numbers that might be we are importing a lot less in value per month terms to what we export?
This in turn may explain politicians on both sides trying to dial down the rethoric in order that figures can recover a bit without the media spotlight and any underlying trends can be u derstood. Arguably the quicker we can get out of lock down and back to some form of normality we may be able to see more clearly trends. If the EU takes a long while returning to normal trading (typically 3 months behind the UK) it could be September before better quality comparable statistics are available?