They shoot horses, don’t they?

I thought he was doing quite well, Jeremy Hunt was full of scorn for Rachel Reeve’s figures. The books had been fine when he was in charge of them just a few weeks ago, he told the House, this was all spin and a pathetic excuse for raising taxes.

The former Chancellor and now Shadow Chancellor was particularly irate about claims from Labour that the Office for Budget Responsibility had not had all the facts when it approved his March budget. In fact, “irate” does not quite convey the full outrageous indignation of Mr. Hunt at the very thought that the OBR might have not had the fullest cooperation and every figure it needed.

His indignation did not last the day, because the OBR released a letter, which basically shot his horse, many, many times. It is the most extraordinary intervention by a government body against its former political masters I can remember.

In short the OBR says:

A.    That it was unaware of 2024-25 spending pressures until this week, so obviously not when it made its assessment in March and signed off Jeremy Hunt’s budget.

B.    It has also pointed out that the books suggest this will be one of biggest in-year overspends on record and

C.     In has launched a review of the "adequacy" of what HM Treasury told it before the March Budget.

A constitutional expert on twitter tells me that Civil Servants can only tell the OBR what ministers allow them to. That suggests that it was a political decision to not give the OBR the whole picture. The OBR will now review the decisions it came to in March. It could retrospectively announce that the whole budget was unaffordable, reckless and unfunded.

The OBR will also want to insist that it has access to all the facts in future, it is a pretty toothless watchdog if it hasn’t got the whole picture. By the way the constant sniping by the right that the OBR is useless and a waste of time because its forecasts on, for example, borrowing, are way out is now exposed. The forecasts are wrong because the government didn’t give them the facts.

But the wider implications are much wider than that.

Was the last government lying through its teeth to us, to parliament, to the markets and even to the regulator it set up to check its figures? Did senior Treasury civil servants complain to Sir Simon Case, and if so what did he tell them? Was the cut to national insurance announced by Jeremy Hunt ever affordable? Who told civil servants to withhold vital facts that call into question the whole purpose of the OBR?

Jeremy Hunt tried to tell the House that the statement by Ms. Reeves meant she was breaking her word and had lost the country’s trust. Within minutes it was the trustworthiness of the last Tory government that was in doubt.   

This one will run and run.

Jonty’s Jottings

Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.

By Jonty Bloom Media