The price of hanging on.
Our Prime Minister is dropping very heavy hints that he will hold on to the keys of No.10 until the autumn. There is naturally a lot of wiggle room in his statements, as is always the case with politicians, but he seems to believe that eventually, somehow "something will turn up.” He might be right, another international crisis, or a Labour party scandal and the polls might move.
Unfortunately, for us and him, what is very unlikely to turn up in any meaningful sense is the British economy. It may already be in a recession, if not it is bouncing along the bottom and it is likely to do just that for the rest of the year and next.
The Chancellor will doubtless find the money for another tax cut, quite possibly from the huge tax rises he is already totally committed to, and those tax cuts will probably be aimed at the already wealthy.
Then when the economy manages to squeeze out some small improvement as interest rates come down towards the end of the year- it will be lauded as the dawn of a new age of economic prosperity. We will be told the pain was worth it, that this is the reward for Tory policies, that happy days are here again.
It will not be true, growth in 2025 will also be weak and anaemic. The Tories have no answer to the low productivity, low growth, low wage economy they have created.
What is really needed is more investment, better training, a fairer split of the profits, a better run state, a better financed state and a ruthless drive to increase productivity at almost any cost.
The Conservative government doesn’t even see the problem, let alone know where to start, it is promising more pain; like a medieval doctor applying more leeches to a rapidly fading patient.
Can the country really afford to wait 12 months for a better cure?
Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.
By Jonty Bloom Media