The number of people on company payrolls has fallen by 828,000 in the UK in the last year, a staggering hit to personal and national wealth. Considering that many experts believe that the Government’s furlough scheme means there are hundreds of thousands more who are actually out of work but don’t know it yet and you get an idea of how tough things are.
The second the lockdown ends and the vaccines start to work the economy will bounce back, there is a fortune in unspent money out there. But it won’t bounce back all the way. To see why look at Rolls Royce, it gets paid for hours flown by its engines and use this year is just 55% of the level seen before the virus struck.
That won’t recover until air travel gets back to normal, that could take years; people may not be able to travel or want to as much as before. Then the airlines have more spare parts than they need because they bought them expecting more wear and tear; and then there are hundreds of almost brand new aircraft stored nose to tail on airfields across the world. So fewer hours flown, fewer spares sold and fewer new engines needed. All that spare capacity will need to be used up before RR get back to normal and that will take years.
https://jonty.substack.com/