Slow decline....
The ONS is struggling with the measurement of productivity, not so much in the UK but how to compare it with other similar countries.
Its latest estimates however are not much cheerier than its previous efforts. They have calculated a range of likely outcomes which show:
Japan is between 20% and 27% less productive than the UK, with a central estimate of around 23% less productive
Italy is between 2% more productive and 8% less productive than the UK, with a central estimate of 3% less productive
Germany is between 3% less productive and 24% more productive than the UK, with a central estimate of 10% more productive
France is between 9% and 28% more productive than the UK, with a central estimate of 18% more productive
the US is between 18% and 28% more productive than the UK, with a central estimate of 23% more productive.
Having visited German factories more times than I care to remember I think it highly unlikely that Germany is 3% less productive than the UK. The idea that Italy might be more productive than the UK should be concentrating minds wonderfully, but it isn’t.
But what to do? Well, one of the principle solutions is well within the government’s ability to solve.
Infrastructure spending is pathetically small in the UK and has been for decades, the UK spent the money and didn’t invest it. That means roads, rail and ports and many other things are lacking.
The FT has a fascinating take on the commute times of Marseille and Leeds workers. Guess which ones can get to and from work easier and quicker? It all adds up.
The Treasury loves to cut infrastructure spending every chance it gets, Chancellors love bribing voters with tax cuts every chance they get.
This is not sensible long term economic management and the results are obvious.
Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.