OBR and the Chancellor
Until you see it misused it is easy to forget just how powerful Westminster governments are. Bad report? Don’t publish it. Bad news? Bury it on the day the Queen dies or the twin towers fall. Policies actually damaging the economy, it’s too early to tell or the Civil Service will find you alternative figures . It goes on and on.
Now the OBR has given the Chancellor the huge advantage of allowing him the chance to correct his errors. Tell him in advance how big the gap between reality and his fantasy economics is and give him a month or so to fill the gap. It’s like giving a student the exam questions in advance.
As a result the chancellor certainly has a huge advantage but he does still have to get the answer right. He can’t ignore, belittle or side step the OBR, not totally. That is why it was set up the way it was.
He has to either slash spending, slash investment or raise taxes until his sums add up.
And they had better add up, the final exam is not self marked, not even marked by the OBR really, but marked by the markets. They do not trust this government, nor the chancellor, they will be harsh in their judgement.
That’s what losing your reputation does for you.
No one trusts you, they will now always check your figures. All those powers can’t protect you from that.
Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.