Not quite so smart
It is always best to wait at least a day before commenting on a budget, it takes at least that long for all the details to emerge and the spin to diminish. So by yesterday the Chancellor was looking considerably less slick than he was and today the headlines are far from generous.
The problems are numerous but posing as a low tax politician while putting £3,000 of taxes on the average household is a good trick if you can pull it off. This Chancellor can’t, or at least not for more than 24 hours.
But what got less attention yesterday was his insistence in numerous interviews that he is betting on the benefits of Brexit boosting the British economy. Free ports and new trade deals being the two big advantages.
But as the OBR pointed out free ports make no difference at all to the economy. Also the UK has just rolled over existing trade deals and torn up membership of the Single Market; so its terms of trade are considerable worse than they were and can never recover what it has thrown away. The OBR’s trade analysis showed just how bad the situation really is.
That is why the OBR calculates the permanent cost of Brexit is twice that of Covid, another 4% to add to the damage already done.
They say the first thing a politician has to be able to do is count, in Chancellors it is essential or they look really stupid.
Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.