The latest GDP figures show that the economy is basically dragging along the bottom, growing at 0.1% over the last 3 months. At this rate it will take another 9 months for the UK economy to get back to the same level it enjoyed before Covid.
So the UK economy is still smaller than it was in February 2020. If even the not particularly impressive growth rate of the 2010’s had continued the UK would be 5-10% bigger than it is now.
Since we are now expecting higher interest rates for longer than previously, the prospects for a strong and long period of rapid growth seem dim.
Next time you wonder where all the government’s money has gone, why taxes are high and the money is short, just remember those growth figures.
His Majesty’s Treasury should have billions more than it does, it must have predicted that revenues would boom as the UK returned to its underlying growth rate. It probably still does, but eventually it will have to admit that something is broken and the old forecasting model is no longer fit for purpose.
It and we desperately need to know what is wrong and how to fix it, the current trend is deeply worrying.
Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.
By Jonty Bloom Media
There’s a big Star-Strewn Dark Blue elephant in the room.