Maths and mackerel
I came across some “research” online yesterday. No names, no pack drill as my late father used to say, so I won’t tell you where I found it. But its “analysis” amounted to this: leaving the EU on WTO terms would “rebalance” our trade with the EU because it would “only” add £5 billion in tariffs to our exports but add £18 billion to our imports. Therefore hurting the rest of the EU more than it hurts us, you can see why I have used so many quotation marks now.
The real way of looking at these numbers is that WTO terms would make our exports £5 billion more expensive every year and therefore less competitive and it would at the same time add £18 billion to prices on the High Street every year. This also avoids any mention of the added costs of red tape, form filing and delays that will inevitably follow. It is also a strange argument for those who want to leave the EU so that we can trade freely.
In a similar vein I recommend another excellent piece by George Parker et al for the FT on the British fishing industry and the reality of Brexit. Find it here ft.com/3qa39hY or I have re-tweeted it.
https://jonty.substack.com/