It is not much...but
The British economy grew by 0.6% in the first three months of this year, which is a fairly good rate of growth. Annually that is almost 2.5%, a better rate than we have achieved on many a disappointing year over the last decade or more. It is not stellar but it is certainly respectable, if the economy stays on course this will be only the third year since 2010 which has had such high growth (excluding the Covid bounce back).
That seems to suggest that if managed well and not hampered by government ideology, stupidity and recklessness the economy is actually capable of a reasonable rate of growth and it needs to be able to do that. Mainly because we need a sustained period of higher growth to balance the books, but also because of “events”.
This growth rate really represents the potential of the UK economy if it were not for “events”. The latest of which is the totally unnecessary Gulf War, which looks set to drag on for months because the US President it too dumb to know he has lost and needs to back down for everyone’s sake, including his own.
So far that hit has not weakened UK growth but we can be almost certain that it will. We therefore need even higher growth, and reforms to make sure that growth is, as much as possible, hard wired into the economy; so that it is robust enough to take the blows that inevitably come along.
Those blows are increasingly frequent and severe, Covid was hopefully a one off, but Trumps Tariffs are a running sore, so is Brexit, the war in Ukraine doesn’t help, restricting immigration is mad, the Gulf War is a pain and who knows what is round the corner?
But at least we do not have a government run by liars, economic ignoramuses, fanatical xenophobes, small minded zealots or Liz Truss.
Some nice, balanced, reliable, steady growth would be nice, the Gulf War will mean we don’t quite get that but the foundations look firmer than in the last 14 years.
That is not much but it is more than the Tory party could manage. We should be grateful for small mercies.
From Jonty Bloom Media Ltd
Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.
Jonty is hopeful - praise the lord! So instead of sticking to improving things Labour is about to embark on a civil war - looking to replace one centrist in a suit with another one …
Three months figures and the cry goes up … but they are subject to correction. One month’s figures and the cry is don’t speak too soon they are just for a month. John Kay, the great FT economist writer always cautioned against the merry-go-round of quarterly reporting and as Denis Healey said if you’re in a hole stop digging (and don’t run a leadership election to satisfy one person’s ambition).