It has started already
The latest GDP figures show that the UK economy shrank by 0.3% between August and October.
The recession is almost certainly already upon us and the government is just making things worse. In typical cynical manner it will just wring its hands, say it has put the right policies in place and it is all someone else’s fault.
But take just one example, manufacturers are already moving production to the continent from the UK, why? Because here the energy help for companies ends in May, making planning for orders almost impossible. In Spain and elsewhere the help is guaranteed for years.
Where would you go?
The Westminster government will doubtless have to reverse this policy, but it is already too late. Short term, penny pinching, deaf to logic and uncaring of the consequences, no wonder the recession here is going to be worse than almost everywhere else.
Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.
By Jonty Bloom Media
TBH I’m surprised that a recession hasn’t officially been declared six months ago.
Productivity must be suffering given all the job vacancies; ongoing outwardly disruptive strikes are hitting a wide variety of industries; stock investments and cryptocurrencies have hoovered up liquid assets meaning they aren’t passing through consumers and traders’ hands; quantitative easing programs going on for nearly a decade will eventually devalue the currency; disinvestment in Russia; double digit inflation and interest rates raised fivefold within months.
I’m wondering how they are maintaining even a semblance of an economy in those conditions.
A 0.3% drop Q on Q seems pretty mild given that it’s the quarter that included Liz Truss’ budget and Hunt’s reversal.