Growing pains
The British economy is bouncing back from covid but the performance is still only middling. The government will once again use short term figures to make it look like the UK is beating all the rest, but the fall in output was the greatest and the recovery has been 3rd or 4th slowest.
The real trouble however is what happens once the covid related chaff has disappeared. The OBR thinks that UK long term growth will average 1.3-1.6% a year.
That is in a good year and is disastrous for an ageing and mature economy like the UK. It needs growth to pay for pensions, care, the NHS and much more.
Why growth is so bad is not clear, a big chunk is self inflected Brexit losses, but the figures have been depressing since the credit crunch more than 10 years ago.
The UK needs a growth plan, a productivity plan, an infrastructure and a training plan- all of which will cost a small fortune. None of which the government seems willing or able to fund.
Apprenticeships are a mess, investment is low, infrastructure is poor, productivity is appalling and the Bank of England is still printing money like it is confetti.
Root and branch reform is needed, while the government will obsess about finding a bit of money for a vote grabbing tax cut in two years time.
All very predictable and very sad.
Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.