Good to see, bad to know

ITV have joined the long line of main stream media that are now openly saying that Brexit has done appalling damage to the British economy.

It is becoming increasingly difficult for them to say anything else, the evidence is everywhere you look. ITV, using research by the LSE, says the damage so far equals 5.5% of GDP. Still in the range of the OBR’s original figure of 4-6%.

But that was supposed to take years, this has happened far more quickly. In reasons are obvious, the deal was probably worse than expected by the OBR, the barriers badly organised, the policy decisions inept, the battle over the NIP damaging and the political indecision and incompetence staggering.

All those factors were caused by Brexit or badly handled because of Brexit. So I will make a prediction, the length of the downturn caused by Brexit and its depth are going to be worse than the OBR originally thought and they ought to redo their calculations and say so.

Just the Kwarteng/Truss/Brexit budget cost £30 billion and counting, that wasn’t in the original calculation at all. Other experts are now claiming the original estimate was far too optimistic.

How about 7-9% or economic growth lost for ever? I think that sounds reasonable.

Let’s see the calculations that the Treasury and the OBR are making now, it should be an eye opener.

Jonty’s Jottings

Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.

By Jonty Bloom Media

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