Far to gullible, Don Corleone
Well, I thought I was being fairly realistic yesterday when I wrote about likely changes to the NIP that the government was going to propose; but it was far far worse and I was far too naive.
What the UK government said yesterday was basically that the NIP was always a con, that it never had any intention of implementing it, that it can tear it up anytime it wants and it is now up to the EU to find a solution that is acceptable to the UK. This is not just laughing in the face of the EU, it is spitting in it.
The EU will make some nice noises and try to soften things at the edges but it cannot agree to this, it would destroy its international and internal reputation. The UK does not seem to worry about such things, but yesterday it shredded what little reputation it had for honesty, truth, reliability and respect for the law.
In the end the UK will find the EU has far more powerful weapons than it does, but one reason it doesn’t seem to care is that the Brexit supporting press will represent this as the EU attacking the UK. The trouble is the EU is used to that, it doesn’t care, it will support its members.
Even leaving aside what tariffs or other punishments the EU could easily apply, the real damage to the UK is this; the EU will be trusted the UK will not. Think what that means in Washington, Canberra and all the rest, there is no longer any reason to trust the UK.
https://jonty.substack.com/