Election timing..
If this government wants another election it can call one anytime but what are the factors influencing that timing?
For a start after a re-shuffle you are going to want to let people settle in, get better known and start coming up with some good ideas.
Then there is a budget coming, which on top of the very recent massive hikes in the taxes on pay is also likely to be unpopular in itself.
But after that it seems to me that the field is clear for a spring election. Brexit border problems have been kicked down the road by the simple expedient of not introducing them. No one cares about Northern Ireland and hopefully Covid will soon be a bitter and painful memory.
Except that as many PM’s have found out the timing of elections is never safe.
How unpopular is the rise in National Insurance, we really don’t know? What happens if the NHS queues get longer and longer and there is a real crisis this winter? If Xmas is cancelled because of logistical nightmares? Fuel bills are soaring. Will the young rebel against paying the care costs of very wealthy home owners?
We just don’t know but we do know the Conservatives have done their best to fix the result by discouraging the young and poor to vote, a cynical bit of vote rigging they learnt for the Republican party.
Labour and the Liberals need a voter registration campaign desperately but there is no sign of one, an electoral pact would help but ditto, we see no sign of that.
Hoping people realise the PM is a fool, is not a strategy.
Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.