It was obvious that inflation was going to fall today because yesterday the PM was all over the media claiming that the economy was on the turn and he expected to hit his “target” to cut inflation in half by the end of the year.
The reason it was obvious is that senior officials and politicians get a 24 hour heads up on key economic data. They are told, in the strictest confidence, what the figures will show by theONS the day before.
They are under very firm instructions not to use the data before it is released, it is very market sensitive, a corrupt official could make a fortune leaking the data. But yesterday either the PM leaked the basic outline of the figures for party political reasons or he has a big glass ball which is amazingly accurate.
Unfortunately for the PM these figures and the labour market stats suggest that the Bank of England will have to keep interest rates higher for longer to bring inflation under control.
That is because the Bank is responsible for controlling inflation, it decides independently what interest are needed to do that and it gets the blame when it goes wrong.
But when inflation does fall, as it must, apparently the PM, who has done absolutely nothing to bring it down, fully intends to take the credit for himself.
In fact he has already started. What a class act he is.
Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.
By Jonty Bloom Media
Spot on and succinct