Who can forget the opening of The Godfather, when the Italian immigrant who has snubbed Don Corleone asks for his help. The Don agrees but only if the man promises to help him if necessary “Some day, and that day may never come, I will call upon you to do a service for me”.
Now we turn to the Home Secretary, the Cabinet minister for law and order. Already fired once for mishandling sensitive material by using her own personal phone she was then re-instated by Rishi Sunak, as the representative of the right of the party.
She has now been accused of trying to get special treatment after being caught speeding.
I imagine she can survive but only if the PM wants her to survive. Which makes her speech last week at the National Conservative conference look rather dumb.
It was, and was seen as, a leadership challenge to the PM, a criticism of his and her government’s policies and a cynical, ambitious career move by a minister who already has plenty of enemies; many among her own party.
In almost any previous government a speech like that would have had the minister fired before they got back to the office. But the PM was weak, she survived the speech. But now, unfortunately for the Home Secretary, she has handed the PM a weapon, she needs his help and support.
If she stays on, (and why should he keep a rival on when he has the perfect excuse to fire her?) then she will owe the PM a massive favour. He can call in that favour any time, she serves at his whim.
Heaven forfend the PM ever needs a sacrificial lamb or a scapegoat for a policy mistake or a missed target. He now has one ready, at hand and defenceless.
Is she resigns over the government’s direction or any other issue her ability to portray it as an act of principle is severely damaged.
All for three little points. She had better hope that the PM likes to keep his friends close and his enemies closer still.
Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.
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Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.
Of all Braverman’s faults, this was by far the least offensive - she sought advice to see if she could avoid publicity or embarrassment and when she couldn’t she accepted the heftier punishment.
I get the impression it has surfaced as a result / consequence of her off-piste speech, giving No 10 a disciplinary procedure to justifiably cut her out. At which point Sunak could go into the party conference having cleaned up the front bench, met at least some of his pledges, and drastically cut the Labour poll lead.