China and trade
Now that the UK has its own trade policy there are only really three big prizes to be won. Trades deal with the USA, India and China, each of which comes with its own problems and none of which can make up for leaving the EU’s single market.
The US is closer to Ireland than the UK and will never sign a deal if the NI border is in dispute and anyway the kind of things they will demand are very difficult for the UK to accept. India wants more and easier access for its population to the UK, again a deal breaker.
But China is the elephant in the room, a thoroughly nasty, brutal, murderous, undemocratic regime, with serious ambitions to become a world power. How on earth do you stand up to it, criticise its actions at home and abroad and maintain good relations? The West is increasingly dependent on Chinese industry to make things for its consumers, yet is increasingly aghast at Beijing’s policies.
You cannot send aircraft carriers to the Pacific to stand up to Chinese sabre rattling and then turn up all smiles the next day to negotiate a trade deal. Whether the British government is willing to hold its nose and try to cut a deal with China, and the signs are it is desperate enough to do just that; it is not going to happen.
The clever move would be to portray that failure as a principled action, I am not sure the Government is that smart.
https://jonty.substack.com/