Biden and Brexit
The US election is over and in the UK the reactions are fascinating. The news that Trump has lost and that President-elect Biden will soon be in power is being analysed here almost exclusively through the prism of Brexit; would Trump or Biden be best for the UK, now that we have left the EU?
I think this is pretty naive. For a start there seems to be an enormous amount of fantasy politics going on. President Trump supported Brexit because it made the EU weaker and he thought the EU was a threat to American power. He is the first President to have thought that, so it was not much for the Brexiteers to hang all their hopes on. It also ignored the fact that he did not believe in free trade, he only wanted trade deals which put America first. The idea that he would have given the UK a great post-Brexit FTA was therefore wishful thinking.
On the other hand, the fear that President Biden will put the UK “at the back of the queue” seems to be missing the point. We weren’t really at the front of anyone’s queue.
What the election result does show us is, however, pretty interesting.
Firstly, the UK is desperate for friends; in fact columnists, politicians and pundits are so desperate that they are pouring over every comment, speech, gesture and appointment in America in an attempt to read the runes.
Secondly, it seems to be dawning on the government that our foreign policy has not caught up with reality. We have managed to leave the EU in such a way that we have left very little goodwill or friendship behind, while innocently believing that the “Special Relationship” would ride to our rescue. I am pretty sure that President Biden, who thinks Brexit was a mistake, is not planning to ride to our rescue. Not least because of the British government’s own actions.
Deliberately breaking international law because the government had changed its mind about the Withdrawal Agreement is beginning to look like an increasingly bad idea. President Trump might not have cared much for international law, the Good Friday Agreement or peace in Ireland but Joe Biden most certainly does and will when he is in the White House..
So, for what it is worth, I think that the Internal Market Bill will now have to be quietly dropped or watered down in an attempt to curry favour in Washington. The Lords voting down the illegal parts of the Bill would be an ideal opportunity to do that but the government is doubling down on this saying it is a “manifesto commitment”. I can’t see them hanging on to that line for very long and backing down may well reassure the new President but even so this will only illustrate a new reality.
The UK had power and influence in the EU, which it doesn’t have anymore and the rather silly idea this could be balanced by having the ear and support of Washington died on election night.
That isn’t to say the UK won’t get on with the USA well enough; the climate change and G7 summits give it something to work with, but if you looking for runes to read try this one. It will be interesting to see how long President Biden spends in the next four years visiting Berlin, Paris, Brussels and Dublin, compared with London.