Back to Brexit

One of the most frustrating thing these days is that the current government admits that Brexit has been economically damaging, but has not plan to do anything about it. “Resettting” the odd agricultural policy, is not going to cut the mustard.

The latest research published by the National Bureau of Economic Research by the excellent Nicholas Bloom et al (no relation), has found that the situation is much worse than previously thought.

It found that,“Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. We estimate that investment was reduced by between 12% and 18%, employment by 3% to 4% and productivity by 3% to 4%.”

The OBR, on behalf of the Government, puts the damage at “just” 4%, but it is quite possible that they are well off the mark.

These are just staggering figures, there are in and of themselves capable of explaining almost all the problems of the current and several past governments.

8% of GDP is a massive amount and where it has gone from is even more worrying. A lot of the UK is made up of low skill, low growth and low investment areas, with islands of high productivity and wealth. Islands that have been very dependent on foreign investment for decades now.

The consequences of lower growth in those islands of prosperity is terrifying, as the rest of the country depends on them to keep the lights on and the government depends on them to bring in tax revenue.

No wonder the books don’t balance and yet no one is willing to reopen the Brexit debate, just the Lib Dems are telling the truth.

The rest are ignoring the obvious and until that ends nothing can be done. Governments will just continue to fail, no matter who runs them.

Jonty’s Jotting

From Jonty Bloom Media Ltd

Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.