A slow train coming
The latest data from the ONS on economic growth are much the same as previous months. The monthly figures, a sharper than expected fall, are too short term to be much use, but the three monthly figure was also flat as a pancake.
Not only that but after a sharp bounce back from Covid the trend has been hugely disappointing since then, and the sting in the tail is that this is expected to last until 2025. That is when interest rate falls will start to kick in but it is obvious that there is more wrong with the economy than high interest rates.
The scale of reforms necessary to kick start growth have been laid out in great detail by the Resolution Foundation and several others.
But basically without huge and politically difficult reforms, there is no reason to think the economy will boom in 2025 or any time soon. These are reforms that will take at least two parliaments to introduce and which the Tufton Street ultra free marketeers and their allies will fight tooth and nail.
Meanwhile we will fall further behind or rivals, the poor will get poorer, taxes will rise and services get worse. That is what low growth means.
Economics, trade and Brexit, not necessarily in that order but the dog always comes first.
By Jonty Bloom Media